None, he never picks it up.

Correct. Go ahead the floor is yours.---thesun

Actually, I would like to pass again.

I'll take the chance then, this is one for all the gamblers out there, the Monty Hall Problem (I'm sure it was already discussed in the old thread, but well)

Here it goes (I'll rephrase it a little)
You are offered to choose one out of three cards that are placed face down on a table in front of you
two of the cards are reds (hearts, diamonds) and one is black (spades or clubs)
if you pick the black card you win, well, 10 bucks
if you pick a red card you get nothing

you are allowed to pick a card but not to turn it over
then someone turns over one of the two cards you didn't pick, it's a red card
now you are allowed to change your choice and pick the other card that's still face down, if you want to
or you can stay with your original choice

so here's the question:
-is it more likely that you win if you change your mind and take the other card or
-will it make no difference at all and you will win 50% of the time and lose 50% of the time or
-is it more likely that you win if you stay with the card you choose in the beginning?

have fun with that one

Let's see if I can get the math correct:

At the start, you had a 33% chance of choosing the money card, yet a 66% chance of choosing a loser.

Now with one card on the table turned showing a loser, you have a 50% chance of holding a winner, but also a 50% chance of holding a loser.

Does changing your mind increase your odds of winning? Mathematically, no. Your odds are better now that one has turned up a loser than they were at the beginning.

This is the whole premise of the Let's Make a Deal theorem. The host always knew where the winner was, and was always going to open a losing door before giving you the choice.

So, with that in mind, the host knows what you have in your hand, and will always open a losing door (card), and always ask if you would like to trade. It is psychological. If you stay, and win, you look like a hero. If you stay and lose, you look like an idiot for not switching when you had the chance.

If you switch and lose, you look like an idiot for switching when you had the winner in your hand. If you switch and win, you look like a genius for switching when you had the chance.

No matter what happens, you are either going to look like a genius or an idiot.

Mathematically, your odds are no different whether you switch or stay, so it is probably better psychologically to stay, rather than switch.

In other words, you basically had a 50/50 shot from the beginning, because the host was going to turn over a loser no matter what you picked.

Nope, that's not correct

I'm going to use the original Monty Hall problem with the three doors, two of which had goats behind them and one which had a car behind it.

It increases your chances of winning from 1/3 to 2/3:

After the host opens one door, there are three possible situations:

1) You originally picked the door with the first goat and the game show host showed the second goat.
2) You original picked the door with the second goat and the game show host showed the first goat.
3) You originally picked the car and the gameshow host showed on of the goats.

In the first two situations, switching would mean that you win. In the last situation, switching means that you would lose. Thus, switching gives you a 2/3 odds of winning, while not switching would give you 1/3 odds of winning.

Thus, mathematically, your chances improve.

Exactly

I pass.

A man was to be sentenced, and the judge told him, "You may make a statement. If it is true, I'll sentence you to four years in prison. If it is false, I'll sentence you to six years in prison." After the man made his statement, the judge decided to let him go free. What did the man say?

He said, "You'll sentence me to six years in prison."

Because cigars cannot be entirely smoked, a hobo who collects cigar butts can make a cigar to smoke out of every 5 butts that he finds. Today, he has collected 25 cigar butts. How many cigars will he be able to smoke?

6

dam this sucks. everyone is getting the hard riddles.

No...you forget that this thread was originally over 120 pages long. All the good hard ones have been posted and answered. We basically had a whole site's worth of riddles.---thesun